A foundational framework within the literature on inflation dynamics is the Phillips Curve (PC) model. The Phillips Curve posits a short-term trade-off between inflation and a measure of economic slack, typically proxied by unemployment rate, such that higher inflation is associated with lower slack in the economy and vice-versa. The earliest empirical validation of this relationship, based on wage inflation and unemployment rate was provided by Phillips (1958) for the United Kingdom. Since then, the Phillips Curve framework has undergone significant theoretical advancements, culminating in the development of the micro-founded New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) (Taylor, 1980; Calvo, 1983a; Gali and Gertler, 1999) as the workhorse model for inflation analysis. Despite its theoretical appeal, the practical application of the NKPC for inflation modelling and forecasting--particularly within central banks--has been fraught with challenges. Such difficulties stem from structural breaks, state dependencies, and intrinsic nonlinearities in the relationship between inflation and its fundamental determinants, complicating its empirical validity and predictive performance (see Cristini and Ferri, 2021).

We aim to enhance a price sentiment index and to more precisely understand price trends from the perspective of not only consumers but also businesses. We extract comments related to prices from the Economy Watchers Survey conducted by the Cabinet Office of Japan and classify price trends using a large language model (LLM). We classify whether the survey sample reflects the perspective of consumers or businesses, and whether the comments pertain to goods or services by utilizing information on the fields of comments and the industries of respondents included in the Economy Watchers Survey. From these classified price-related comments, we construct price sentiment indices not only for a general purpose but also for more specific objectives by combining perspectives on consumers and prices, as well as goods and services. It becomes possible to achieve a more accurate classification of price directions by employing a LLM for classification. Furthermore, integrating the outputs of multiple LLMs suggests the potential for the better performance of the classification. The use of more accurately classified comments allows for the construction of an index with a higher correlation to existing indices than previous studies. We demonstrate that the correlation of the price index for consumers, which has a larger sample size, is further enhanced by selecting comments for aggregation based on the industry of the survey respondents.

This integration is typically done by (i) selecting, (ii) transforming, and (iii) aggregating textual content into a time-series representation (see Ardia et al., 2019; Algaba et al., 2020, for a general overview of these steps). While many studies have focused on steps (ii) and (iii)-- transforming and aggregating textual data into a quantitative measure such as sentiment (see e.g., Loughran and McDonald, 2014; Jegadeesh and Wu, 2013; Manela and Moreira, 2017)--the essential selection step (i), which usually relies on subjective ad-hoc rules, has not received much attention yet. We aim to fill this gap in this article by proposing an approach to construct text-based time-series indices optimally. Specifically, our algorithm determines which set of texts, among a large corpus, leads to a text-based index that is optimal for a specific objective--typically, an index that maximizes the contemporaneous relation or the predictive performance with respect to a target variable, such as inflation. Our methodology relies on binary selection matrices that, applied to the vocabulary of tokens, select the relevant texts in the corpus.

Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators that have a great impact on the population of any country and region. Inflation is influenced by range of factors, one of which is inflation expectations. Many central banks take this factor into consideration while implementing monetary policy within the inflation targeting regime. Nowadays, a lot of people are active users of the Internet, especially social networks. There is a hypothesis that people search, read, and discuss mainly only those issues that are of particular interest to them. It is logical to assume that the dynamics of prices may also be in the focus of user discussions. So, such discussions could be regarded as an alternative source of more rapid information about inflation expectations. This study is based on unstructured data from Vkontakte social network to analyze upward and downward inflationary trends (on the example of the Omsk region). The sample of more than 8.5 million posts was collected between January 2010 and May 2022. The authors used BERT neural networks to solve the problem. These models demonstrated better results than the benchmarks (e.g., logistic regression, decision tree classifier, etc.). It makes possible to define pro-inflationary and disinflationary types of keywords in different contexts and get their visualization with SHAP method. This analysis provides additional operational information about inflationary processes at the regional level The proposed approach can be scaled for other regions. At the same time the limitation of the work is the time and power costs for the initial training of similar models for all regions of Russia.

Over the past decade, the stellar growth of Indian economy has been challenged by persistently high levels of inflation, particularly in food prices. The primary reason behind this stubborn food inflation is mismatch in supply-demand, as domestic agricultural production has failed to keep up with rising demand owing to a number of proximate factors. The relative significance of these factors in determining the change in food prices have been analysed using gradient boosted regression trees (BRT) - a machine learning technique. The results from BRT indicates all predictor variables to be fairly significant in explaining the change in food prices, with MSP and farm wages being relatively more important than others. International food prices were found to have limited relevance in explaining the variation in domestic food prices. The challenge of ensuring food and nutritional security for growing Indian population with rising incomes needs to be addressed through resolute policy reforms.